Indonesia is located at the meeting point of four big tectonic plates: the Eurasian, the Indo-Australian, the Pacific, and the Philippine-Sea plates (Bird, 2003). Earthquakes could occur due to collisions between the earth’s plates, active faults, volcanic eruptions, and other causes. Apart from causing fatalities, earthquakes could damage properties and infrastructures which may lead to huge financial losses. In this workshop, the construction of an Event Loss Table (ELT) probabilistically for tectonic earthquakes, is demonstrated. The construction of the ELT being developed utilizes the probability distribution of the moment magnitudes of the earthquakes mainshocks; which in this case, are modelled by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The obtained GPD is then used to construct probabilistically the ELT of the (insured) exposures. In constructing the ELT, collective risk models and Monte-Carlo simulations are applied to generate multi-scenarios of the risk of financial losses, based on the chosen Average Recurrence Intervals (Return Periods) of the tectonic earthquakes. The resulting ELT may then be compared with those produced by the 2019 Global Earthquake Model (GEM) or by other existing methodologies used by reinsurance companies.
Software
In this workshop, the software Python and QGIS will be used to build the Event Loss Table. We kindly request that you download and install the necessary software on your device before attending the workshop. You can download Python and QGIS by clicking the link below.
QGIS (Windows and Mac): https://www.qgis.org/en/site/forusers/download.html
Python (Windows): https://www.python.org/downloads/windows/
Python (Mac): https://www.python.org/downloads/macos/
Jupyter (Windows and Mac): https://jupyter.org/install
Video how to install on your device:
QGIS (Windows): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD5TeeunwoQ
QGIS (Mac): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9EnIEznM08
Python (Windows): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yivyNCtVVDk
Python (Mac): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M323OL6K5vs
Jupyter (Windows): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tPS-7TWjq0
Jupyter (Mac): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tPS-7TWjq0
Speakers
Dumaria Rulina Tampubolon, M.Sc., Ph.D.
Head of Actuarial Science Division, IndoMS
Yosef Ronaldo Lete Boro, S.Mat., M.Si.
Randhy Pratama, S.Si., M.Aktr., ASAI
Indrayoga Putra
Vincensius Ferer C.W.
